华盛顿这次玩大了：200万联邦雇员可能永久失业

Group 1 - The current government shutdown in the U.S. is different from previous ones, with potential for permanent layoffs rather than temporary furloughs [2][4][5] - Analysts from Barclays and Nomura express concerns that this shutdown could lead to significant economic impacts, including a potential drop in GDP by 0.1% for each week of closure [5][6] - The Labor Department's activities will be halted during the shutdown, leading to a lack of critical economic data, which could further complicate the situation [8][9] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve may face challenges in policy-making due to the absence of reliable labor data, relying instead on private sector information [10][11] - The financial stability of households could be severely disrupted, especially for the 2 million federal employees and contractors who may not receive paychecks [12] - The potential for structural unemployment is heightened, as the notion of "permanent layoffs" introduces uncertainty for federal employees regarding their job security [16] Group 3 - While some financial institutions believe the overall economic impact will be moderate, the situation is complicated by the unprecedented nature of the current shutdown [13][14] - The consumption capacity of federal employees is significant, and their loss of income could lead to a broader economic downturn affecting local businesses [16]