央视镜头前，前央行副行长朱敏“捅破”房价真相：3大支撑全反转，未来5年楼市要变天？

Core Viewpoint - The former deputy governor of the central bank, Zhu Min, stated that housing prices are unlikely to rise significantly again, indicating a fundamental shift in the underlying support for housing prices in China [3]. Group 1: Population Structure - The birth rate in China has drastically declined, with the number of newborns dropping from 17.86 million in 2016 to an estimated 9.54 million in 2024, leading to a projected 50% reduction in annual new housing demand over the next 20 years [5]. - The willingness of the 25-30 age group to purchase homes has decreased from 65% to 48% over the past five years, indicating a shift in young people's attitudes towards home buying due to financial constraints [5]. Group 2: Land Finance - The revenue from land sales has halved, dropping from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 4.87 trillion yuan in 2024, disrupting the traditional cycle of land sales, developer purchases, and bank lending [7]. - The decline in housing demand has led to a halt in the entire real estate chain, affecting local governments, developers, and banks [7]. Group 3: Changing Perspectives - The traditional belief that "having a home means having a family" is being abandoned by younger generations, who are now reluctant to use their family's savings to purchase a home [9]. - The financial burden of homeownership is significant, with a typical family in Beijing needing to gather 1.5 million yuan for a down payment and facing monthly mortgage payments that consume a large portion of their income [9]. Group 4: Economic Implications - There are two conflicting views regarding housing prices: one argues that high prices suppress consumer spending, while the other fears that falling prices will reduce household wealth and consumption [10]. - The government's stance is clear in the "14th Five-Year Plan," which aims to curb real estate speculation and shift focus towards new economic drivers such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Based on international experiences, it is projected that China's housing market may bottom out around 2027, following a similar adjustment period seen in Japan and the U.S. [11]. - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai may stabilize by 2026, with expected annual price increases of 3%-5%, while smaller cities may face greater adjustment pressures [11]. Group 6: Long-term Transformation - The transition from viewing real estate as an investment to recognizing it as a necessity will involve challenges, including asset volatility for current homeowners and economic uncertainties for potential buyers [12]. - Ultimately, the goal is to ensure that home buying does not deplete family savings, allowing other industries to thrive and contributing to sustainable economic growth in China [12].