帮主郑重：9月房价深度解读｜新房稳中有进，二手房持续探底，机会藏于分化中

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a significant divergence, with new home prices in core cities showing slight increases while second-hand home prices continue to decline [3][4]. Overall Market Trends - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities across the country was 16,926 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68%, indicating a stabilization trend [3]. - Conversely, the average price of second-hand homes was 13,381 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decline of 0.74%, marking the 41st consecutive month of decline, and a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters [3]. City-Level Analysis - The new home market is primarily driven by core cities, with Shanghai seeing a month-on-month increase of 0.82% and Hangzhou increasing by 0.51%. The overall increase in first-tier cities was 0.48% [3]. - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities, such as Shantou and Liuzhou, are experiencing price declines, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.35%, indicating a trend of "price reduction for volume" [3]. Second-Hand Market Dynamics - The second-hand home market reflects supply and demand more accurately, with an increase in viewing and consultation volumes in September, yet high listing volumes continue to suppress prices. Second-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.87%, with cities like Yancheng and Xuzhou experiencing drops exceeding 1.3% [3]. Investment Recommendations - For first-time buyers and those seeking improvements, focus should be on high-quality new homes in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, or second-hand homes that have adjusted prices and mature amenities [5]. - Investors are advised to consider long-term factors such as population inflow and industrial layout when making decisions [5].