美元占比降至42.8%，欧元升至32.5%，人民币表现如何？

Core Insights - The narrative of "dollar hegemony weakening" is prevalent, with claims that the dollar's global reserve share has dropped to 42.8% and the euro has risen to 32.5%, but these figures are misleading and do not align with official data from the IMF [1][3] Group 1: Dollar and Euro Positioning - The dollar's reserve share is reported at 56.3% as of Q2 2025, marking a 30-year low but still significantly higher than the euro and yuan combined [3][4] - The dollar's decline is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over U.S. debt levels, leading to a reduction in dollar-denominated assets held by other central banks [3][4] - The euro remains stable at around 20.2% of global reserves, supported by the European Central Bank's credibility and the economic size of the Eurozone, but faces challenges such as slow economic growth and policy unification [3][4] Group 2: Renminbi's Progress - The renminbi's global reserve share has increased to 2.12% (approximately $246.3 billion) as of Q1 2025, having doubled over recent years, with expectations of reaching 6% by 2030 according to central bank surveys [4][6] - Cross-border usage of the renminbi is growing, with a 21.1% year-on-year increase in cross-border transactions, and 26.5% of trade settlements now conducted in renminbi [4][5] - The renminbi's international payment system (CIPS) processed 175.49 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 42.6% increase, indicating a broader acceptance of renminbi in global trade [5][6] Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges for Renminbi - The renminbi's potential for growth is supported by China's solid economic fundamentals, with a projected GDP growth of 5% in 2024, and ongoing internationalization efforts by the People's Bank of China [6][7] - However, significant challenges remain, including a large gap in reserve share compared to the euro and dollar, capital flow restrictions, and insufficient market depth for renminbi-denominated assets [8][9][10] - The global currency landscape is evolving gradually, with the dollar transitioning from an absolute leader to a relative one, while the renminbi is positioned as a promising contender for future growth [10]