下一个“黑天鹅”，11月5日来袭？

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear a case on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could lead to significant economic and political consequences [1][2] - The case centers around the invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by the Trump administration to justify tariffs, claiming trade deficits constitute a national emergency [3][4] - The outcome of the case could either validate the administration's broad powers or challenge the legal basis for such unilateral economic measures [5][9] Legal Context - The Trump administration argues that the IEEPA provides the president with extensive powers to impose tariffs in response to national emergencies, with tariffs having raised the effective consumer goods tariff rate to 17.9%, the highest since 1934 [3][4] - However, many legal scholars, including conservatives, believe the administration's legal foundation is weak, citing the "major-questions doctrine" which requires significant economic actions to have clear congressional authorization [5][6] Market Implications - The potential ruling is viewed as a "Damocles sword" over Wall Street, with the outcome likely to influence market pricing and fiscal strategies [7] - If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the government may need to refund billions in tariffs, impacting fiscal stability and potentially destabilizing the unilateral economic strategy of the Trump administration [8] - Conversely, a ruling in favor of the administration could expand presidential powers significantly, allowing for unilateral economic decisions without congressional approval, which may lead to market volatility if combined with negative economic indicators [10]