10月4日大消息！美联储最新发声，事关降息！降息会如期而至？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal conflict regarding interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for aggressive cuts while others urge caution due to persistent inflation concerns [3][5][16]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Federal Reserve Governor Milan calls for a more aggressive rate cut path, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction, contrasting with the previously ambiguous stance of the Fed [3][6]. - Vice Chairman Jefferson takes a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need for data-driven decisions while acknowledging the necessity of rate cuts to support the economy [7][16]. - Hawkish officials, including Cleveland Fed President Harmack and St. Louis Fed President Musalem, express concerns about high inflation and advocate for a careful approach to rate cuts [3][11][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE inflation rate in August remains high at 2.9%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, which is a major concern for hawkish officials [8][12]. - Employment data shows a decline in non-farm payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a cooling job market, which supports the case for rate cuts [11][12]. - The upcoming government shutdown poses a risk of delaying the release of critical economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [13][16]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October exceed 90%, influencing global asset pricing and capital flows [13][14]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a new round of easing from the Fed, expecting rate cuts in October and December [14]. - The recent rate cut has positively impacted Chinese and Hong Kong tech stocks, as it alleviates global dollar liquidity pressures [14][16].