特朗普打算月底和中方见面，希望中国网开一面，放美国大豆一马

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges faced by U.S. soybean farmers due to trade tensions with China, highlighting the historical context of tariffs and their impact on soybean exports and prices. Trade War Background - The trade war began in 2018 when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, particularly soybeans, which saw exports to China plummet from 32.9 million tons in 2017 to 16.6 million tons in 2018 [1][3]. - By 2019, U.S. soybean exports to China had dropped to zero, with the total export value falling from $21 billion in 2017 to $9.1 billion in 2019 [3][4]. Recent Developments - As of October 2025, U.S. soybean farmers are again facing a similar situation, with China halting purchases of U.S. soybeans, leading to a price drop to $8.5 per bushel [4][5]. - The U.S. soybean industry is urging the Biden administration to expedite negotiations with China, as the current stockpiles are at risk of spoilage [5][7]. Market Dynamics - Brazil and Argentina have significantly increased their market share in China, with Brazil exporting 10.49 million tons of soybeans to China in August 2025, accounting for 85% of China's total imports [4][5]. - The article notes that U.S. farmers are shifting to domestic markets and biofuel production as a response to the declining export opportunities [7][8]. Financial Impact - The U.S. agricultural sector suffered losses of $27 billion during the previous trade war, with soybeans accounting for 71% of that figure, and current estimates suggest that losses could be even greater this time around, potentially exceeding $30 billion [5][7].