美联储降息+国内新政双驱动，核心城市房价上涨或已成定局

Group 1 - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has decreased the attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting global capital to seek new investment opportunities, particularly in China's core real estate markets [1][3] - The simplification of foreign investment processes in China has opened doors for foreign capital to enter the real estate market, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's rate cut [1] - The increase in M1 money supply growth from 1.5% in April to 6.0% in August indicates that more liquid funds are available for investment, leading to increased interest in real estate [1] Group 2 - New policies in Shenzhen have significantly lowered the barriers for home purchases, allowing non-residents to buy properties without stringent qualifications, which is expected to boost demand [3] - The reduction in mortgage rates, with the first and second home rates now at 3.05%, provides substantial savings for buyers, further stimulating the market [3] - The ability to withdraw housing provident fund for down payments and the benefits for families with multiple children are designed to alleviate financial burdens on homebuyers, pushing demand into the market [3] Group 3 - Data from September shows a nearly 30% month-on-month increase in customer traffic at Shenzhen sales offices, indicating a strong recovery in buyer interest [5] - The successful issuance of bonds by real estate companies, such as New Town Development's $1.6 billion bond, reflects improved confidence and access to financing in the sector [5] - A predicted 40% increase in transaction volume in peripheral areas of Shenzhen due to new policies suggests a rapid absorption of inventory, which is likely to lead to price increases [5] Group 4 - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, there are signs of price increases, with new homes in high-demand areas experiencing significant sales, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [7] - The narrowing decline in new home prices in first-tier cities suggests a potential stabilization and recovery in the market, driven by external capital inflows and relaxed domestic policies [7] - The combination of the Federal Reserve's rate cut and domestic policy adjustments is expected to lead to a significant market rebound in the fourth quarter, with potential price increases for properties [7]