美财长提前官宣胜利，美国豆商有救？回头一看：是特朗普绷不住了

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China is causing distress among American farmers, with exports dropping by 39% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the previous year, leading to a historical high in soybean inventory and financial losses for farmers [1][2]. Group 1: Export Data and Trends - U.S. soybean exports to China fell sharply, totaling only 5.9 million tons from January to July 2025, a 39% decrease year-over-year [1]. - By August 2025, U.S. exports to China were recorded at 218 million bushels, a drastic drop from 985 million bushels in the same period of 2024 [1]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a record high soybean inventory of 22 million tons, with at least 7 million tons classified as unsellable [1]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has severely impacted U.S. agricultural exports, with a projected total value of $17 billion in agricultural exports to China for July 2025, a 30% decrease from 2024 and more than a 50% drop from 2022 [2]. - The imposition of a 34% additional tariff on U.S. soybeans has made it economically unfeasible for Chinese buyers to purchase American soybeans [1][2]. Group 3: Political and Economic Reactions - Farmers in key agricultural states are expressing dissatisfaction with the current trade policies, which are affecting their livelihoods, leading to increased pressure on Republican lawmakers ahead of the midterm elections [2][6]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for a fifth round of trade negotiations with China during the APEC summit, indicating potential agricultural concessions in exchange for benefits in other sectors [3][8]. Group 4: Market Response and Future Outlook - Following Bessent's announcement, soybean futures experienced a slight rebound, but overall market reactions remained lukewarm, with prices fluctuating around $10.2 per bushel [3][8]. - The diversification of China's soybean imports, primarily from South America, has solidified its supply chain, reducing reliance on U.S. soybeans and maintaining stable prices [9].