特朗普宣布月底和中方见面，关键时刻，普京改口，宣布不反美元

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, which has reached a historic low, impacting American farmers and the agricultural sector [3][5][12] - The geopolitical dynamics between the U.S. and China, particularly regarding tariffs and trade negotiations, are crucial in shaping the future of soybean trade [10][18] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - U.S. soybean farmers are facing unprecedented challenges, with a complete halt in orders from China for the first time since 1999 [3][5] - In 2024, China imported 22.13 million tons of U.S. soybeans, accounting for 48% of U.S. soybean exports, valued at over $12 billion [5] - By July 2025, Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans plummeted to 420,000 tons, and by August, orders disappeared entirely, leading to a 27% drop in soybean prices on the Chicago futures market [5][12] Group 2: Trade Policies and Tariffs - Trump's tariff policies have backfired, with a 50% tariff imposed on Chinese goods leading to retaliatory measures from China, including a 23% tariff on U.S. soybeans [5][10] - The U.S. soybean association warns that the inventory backlog could result in losses of $100 to $150 per acre for farmers [5] - The U.S. is under pressure to negotiate effectively at the upcoming APEC summit, as the soybean harvest season ends in November [10][18] Group 3: China's Strategic Shift - China has diversified its soybean supply chain, significantly increasing imports from Brazil, which accounted for 69.16% of China's soybean imports in 2024 [12][14] - In the first eight months of 2025, China imported 73.31 million tons of soybeans, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with August's imports reaching a historical second-high [12][14] - The establishment of a currency settlement agreement between China and Brazil has further reduced transaction costs, with 41% of transactions now in RMB [12][14] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The article discusses the broader implications of U.S.-China trade relations, with Trump's administration facing challenges in rallying allies for a unified stance against China [10][18] - Russia's recent statements indicate a shift in its approach to the dollar, which may affect its trade dynamics with China and the U.S. [14][16] - The upcoming APEC summit is positioned as a critical moment for U.S.-China negotiations, with both sides holding firm on their demands [10][18]