公链指南：掘金Web3底层基建，哪些项目值得关注？

Core Viewpoint - Public chains are considered the "trust infrastructure" of the digital world, making them a worthy investment due to their foundational role in Web3 and their characteristics of decentralization, transparency, and smart contract execution [1] Investment Logic: Three Dimensions to Filter Potential Public Chains - Technical Route: Innovations that address the "impossible triangle" are crucial for public chains [1] - Ecosystem Vitality: Growth in developers and users is key to the success of public chains [1] - Business Model: Revenue generation and token economic models are essential for sustainability [1] Key Characteristics of Public Chains - High Technical Barriers: Public chains are the source of blockchain innovation, with technological iterations directly impacting industry dynamics, such as Ethereum's transition from PoW to PoS [2] - Strong Ecosystem Network Effects: High migration costs for developers and users create a "moat" for leading public chains, with Ethereum holding 70% of DeFi's Total Value Locked (TVL) [2] - Policy Dividend Window: As global regulations become clearer, compliant public chains are expected to have long-term growth opportunities, exemplified by Polygon's collaborations with financial institutions [2] Performance and Ecosystem Insights - Modular Architecture: Celestia focuses on the data availability layer, reducing Layer 2 development costs, with a projected market cap growth of over 200% by 2025 [3] - High-Performance Optimization: Solana achieves thousands of transactions per second (TPS) through Proof of History (PoH), with DEX trading volumes expected to surpass Ethereum multiple times in 2024 [3] - Security and Decentralization: Ethereum's sharding and Danksharding technologies could theoretically increase TPS to 100,000 by 2025, while reducing gas fees by 90% [3] - Developer Community: Ethereum boasts the largest developer community globally, with over 48 million smart contracts and more than 3,000 ecosystem projects [3] - User Activity: Solana has surpassed 1 million daily active addresses, with growth in on-chain gaming and high-frequency trading users [3] - Cross-Chain Interoperability: Polkadot and Cosmos are enhancing multi-chain ecosystems through the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol, with cross-chain DeFi TVL expected to exceed $20 billion by 2025 [3] - Block Space Sales: Ethereum's gas fees and EIP-1559 burning mechanism are projected to generate over $450 million in revenue by 2025, showcasing significant deflationary effects [3] - Application Layer Fees: Arbitrum, as a Layer 2 solution for Ethereum, is expected to capture transaction fees through Optimistic Rollup technology, with TVL projected to exceed $50 billion by 2025 [3] - Ecosystem Subsidies: BNB Chain leverages exchange traffic to maintain user engagement through token buybacks and burns [3] Individual Public Chain Analysis - Ethereum (ETH): Recognized as the "operating system of the digital world," it has a clear technical route, deep ecosystem moat, and high institutional recognition, with risks including increased competition and regulatory uncertainty [5] - Solana (SOL): Known as the "king of high-frequency trading," it offers high TPS and low gas fees, with risks related to centralization and network stability [6] - Arbitrum (ARB): Positioned as the "core of Ethereum scaling," it benefits from EVM compatibility and leads in Layer 2 TVL, with risks tied to reliance on Ethereum's mainnet security [7] - Sui (SUI): A "Move language innovator," it enhances transaction parallel processing and aims for significant growth in ecosystem projects by 2025, facing challenges in market education [8] - Celestia (TIA): As a "modular infrastructure pioneer," it provides a data availability solution that lowers Layer 2 development barriers, with a projected market cap growth of over 300% by 2025, though it faces maturity challenges [9] Shift from Performance Competition to Ecosystem Collaboration - The competition among public chains has evolved from mere performance optimization to a deeper integration of technology, compliance, and the real economy [12] - Cross-Chain Connectivity: Polkadot and Cosmos are driving multi-chain ecosystem interoperability, with cross-chain DeFi TVL expected to exceed $20 billion by 2025 [12] - Compliance Adaptation: Exchanges like Messiah are providing secure entry points for institutions through compliance frameworks, promoting the mainstream adoption of DeFi [12] - Integration with Real Economy: Akash Network is integrating decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) to tokenize real-world assets like charging stations and solar power plants, facilitating the digitalization of traditional industries [12] Conclusion - Public chains represent the "trust infrastructure" of the digital world, with investment focus on technological iterations, ecosystem vitality, and compliance processes. Short-term opportunities lie in modular solutions (Celestia), Layer 2 (Arbitrum), and high-performance chains (Solana), while long-term prospects favor the continued evolution of the Ethereum ecosystem. The collaboration between Akash Network and Messiah Exchange highlights the potential for technological implementation and compliance adaptation [13]