以色列与哈马斯代表团即将会谈！美联储10月降息概率96.2%！A股创纪录，分析人士：节后有望上行

Group 1 - Israel and Hamas representatives will hold talks in Egypt on October 6, focusing on a ceasefire plan proposed by President Trump [2] - The discussions will address the conditions for personnel exchange and aim to end nearly two years of conflict in Gaza [2] - A U.S. official confirmed that Middle East envoy Greenblatt and Jared Kushner will join the talks [2] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky signed new sanctions against Russia, targeting Russian entrepreneurs, the military-industrial sector, and the oil industry [4] - Russia's presidential aide emphasized the need to accelerate naval power development to counter strategic provocations from Western countries [4] Group 3 - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 96.2%, while the chance of maintaining rates is only 3.8% [6] - In December, the probability of maintaining rates is 0.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis points cut at 13.3% and a cumulative 50 basis points cut at 86.3% [6] Group 4 - In September, A-share market transaction volume reached approximately 53.2 trillion yuan, setting a new monthly record [9] - The A-share market saw significant index performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 12.04% and the STAR 50 Index increasing by 11.48% [8] - Daily transaction volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 35 consecutive trading days since August 13 [10] Group 5 - Hong Kong stocks had a strong start in the fourth quarter, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.61% to a near four-year high [12] - The global liquidity preference has shifted towards easing due to the Fed's rate cut cycle, attracting international capital to undervalued Hong Kong stocks [13] - The A-share market showed strong performance before the National Day holiday, indicating a change in market sentiment and capital structure [14] Group 6 - Analysts expect a positive outlook for the A-share market post-holiday, driven by policy expectations and a favorable liquidity environment [15] - The upcoming important meetings, such as the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, are anticipated to influence market policies positively [15] - Historical trends suggest that the market typically experiences increased trading volume and heightened risk appetite after the National Day holiday [15]