以色列与哈马斯代表团即将会谈！美联储10月降息概率96.2%！A股创纪录 分析人士：节后有望上行

Group 1: Israel-Hamas Talks - The Israeli and Hamas delegations will hold talks in Egypt on October 6, focusing on a ceasefire plan proposed by President Trump [1] - The discussions will address the conditions for personnel exchanges and the details of the ceasefire [1] - The U.S. officials, including Middle East envoy Greenblatt and Jared Kushner, will participate in the talks [1] Group 2: Ukraine-Russia Sanctions - Ukrainian President Zelensky signed multiple new sanctions against Russia, targeting Russian entrepreneurs, military industry, and the oil sector [2] - Russia's maritime commission chairman emphasized the need to strengthen naval forces to deter strategic provocations from Western countries [2] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is 96.2%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is only 3.8% [3] - For December, the probability of maintaining the rate is 0.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 13.3% and a cumulative 50 basis point cut at 86.3% [3] Group 4: A-Share Market Performance - In September, the A-share market saw significant index increases, with the ChiNext Index rising by 12.04% and the STAR 50 Index by 11.48% [4] - The total trading volume in September reached approximately 53.2 trillion yuan, setting a new monthly record [4] - Daily trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 35 consecutive trading days since August 13 [4] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market had a strong start in Q4, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.61% on October 2, reaching a nearly four-year high [5] - The strong performance is attributed to global liquidity preferences shifting towards a more accommodative stance due to the Fed's rate cut cycle [6] Group 6: Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - Unlike previous years, the last trading day before the National Day holiday saw collective index increases and active trading, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7] - Increased financing balances and active financing funds suggest a strong willingness for new capital to enter the market [7] - The financial sector, particularly securities firms, is expected to perform well, supported by recent central bank policies [7] Group 7: Post-Holiday Market Expectations - The market is expected to trend upwards post-holiday due to several factors, including upcoming important political meetings and a favorable liquidity environment [8] - Historical trends indicate that trading volume and risk appetite typically increase after the National Day holiday [8]