特朗普官宣10月底和中方会面，紧要关头，普京转向，宣告不反对美元

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean exports to China have dropped to zero, causing significant pressure on American farmers and the Trump administration [1][3] - China's strategic reserve of soybeans and diversified import channels have positioned it advantageously in negotiations, with a notable increase in imports from Brazil and Argentina [3][5] - Putin's recent remarks on "de-dollarization" indicate a shift in Russia's stance, emphasizing that the country is not actively pursuing a de-dollarization policy but is restricted from using the dollar [5][7] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - U.S. soybean exports to China were valued at $12 billion last year, accounting for over half of total U.S. soybean exports, but have now fallen to zero [1] - The storage capacity for new soybean harvests is critically low, with over 90% of storage used, leading to potential losses for farmers [1] - The Indiana Farmers Association and other agricultural groups have urged the White House to address the high tariffs that have eliminated the Chinese market for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 2: China's Import Strategy - China imported nearly 14 million tons of soybeans a month prior to Trump's comments, marking the second-highest record, primarily from Brazil and Argentina [3] - South American soybeans are priced 23% lower than U.S. products due to tariff advantages, making them the preferred choice for China [3] - China's imports of energy products from the U.S. have also plummeted to nearly zero in the first eight months of the year [3] Group 3: Russia's Economic Position - Putin's adjustment on the de-dollarization narrative reflects the economic realities faced by Russia, which struggles to utilize the yuan earned from energy exports for trade with non-CIS countries [5][7] - The trade settlement in local currencies between Russia and China has reached 90%, but challenges remain in trading with other nations [5][7] - The need for Russia to find alternative financial pathways is underscored by India's refusal to use yuan for oil payments, leading to a surplus of unusable rupees [7] Group 4: Political Implications - The agricultural states are crucial for the Republican Party, and the soybean issue poses a significant political challenge for Trump [3] - The upcoming APEC summit is seen as a critical opportunity for U.S.-China discussions, with potential implications for global trade dynamics [11] - Trump's administration is preparing for negotiations, with soybean trade and currency issues likely to be central topics [11]