假如房地产坚决不降价，买房者又坚决不购买，会出现什么结果？

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is characterized by a standoff between buyers and developers, with significant declines in sales volume but relatively stable prices, indicating a delicate balance in the market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 18.7% year-on-year, marking the largest drop in five years [1]. - The new residential price index in first-tier cities only fell by 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 5% [1]. - Developers are reluctant to lower prices significantly due to concerns over brand image and potential backlash from existing homeowners [2]. Group 2: Financial Pressures - The average debt-to-asset ratio in the real estate industry reached 78.3% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the end of 2023 [2]. - High land acquisition costs and financing rates from 2020-2022 create a hard constraint for developers, making significant price reductions potentially unprofitable [2]. Group 3: Diversification Strategies - Some strong developers are diversifying into commercial real estate, long-term rentals, and property management, with non-residential business income for the top 30 developers averaging 23.7% in the first half of 2025, up 7.8 percentage points from 2023 [3]. Group 4: Buyer Behavior - Housing demand is being postponed, with a significant drop in the home-buying willingness index for individuals under 35, which fell to 63.2, a decrease of 12.7 points from 2023 [5]. - Over 68% of respondents expect housing prices to decline in the next year, leading many potential buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The average housing price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is 20.3:1, significantly above the internationally recognized reasonable range of 3-6:1, making it difficult for many families to afford high mortgage payments [5]. Group 5: Market Segmentation - The market is expected to see increased differentiation, with high-quality areas maintaining stable prices while weaker projects may need to lower prices or offer incentives to sell [6]. - Over 200 real estate companies have applied for bankruptcy reorganization between 2024 and 2025, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation [6]. Group 6: Macro Economic Impact - The real estate sector's downturn is projected to weaken economic growth, with its contribution to GDP around 15% [10]. - Local government finances are under pressure due to a 23.6% year-on-year decline in land transfer revenue, totaling 1.65 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The non-performing loan ratio for real estate loans was 2.7% as of June 2025, indicating manageable financial risks despite a slight increase [10]. Group 7: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing standoff may lead to a more rational real estate market, emphasizing housing's residential attributes rather than investment potential [11]. - The market is likely to shift towards urban renewal and stock renovation as new growth points, with investments in urban renewal expected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan by 2026 [11].