Apple(US:AAPL) Huan Qiu Wang Zi Xun·2025-10-05 03:24Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has downgraded Apple's investment rating from "Hold" to "Underperform" due to overly optimistic expectations regarding iPhone upgrades and the future of foldable phones [1][3] Group 1: Investment Rating and Price Target - Jefferies adjusted Apple's target price from $205.82 to $205.16 [1] - The downgrade reflects concerns about the sustainability of upgrade cycles driven primarily by pricing rather than attractive features [3] Group 2: Market Expectations and Consumer Behavior - Analyst Edison Lee noted that the market has already priced in strong demand for the iPhone 17, with optimism surrounding the iPhone 18 Fold and subsequent upgrade cycles [3] - The iPhone 17 Pro Max models are currently seeing a premium of 5% to 15% in the second-hand market, while the iPhone 17 Air is the least popular model [3] Group 3: Foldable Phone Market Dynamics - In the Chinese market, foldable phones are experiencing price reductions, with some 256GB versions offering a subsidy of 500 RMB to stimulate demand [3] - The target market for foldable phones priced around $2000 may be limited, as exemplified by Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 7, which features a nearly crease-free screen and a thickness of approximately 4.2 mm, compared to the iPhone 17 Air's 5.5 mm thickness [3] Group 4: Future Monitoring - Jefferies recommends that investors closely monitor Apple's device sales, profit margin structure, and changes in user upgrade behavior over the next few quarters [3]