美国欠38万亿、日本占GDP260%！全球债务炸穿天，凭啥还不崩？

Core Viewpoint - The global debt has surpassed $337 trillion, with the U.S. owing $38 trillion and Japan's government debt exceeding twice its GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of such high debt levels in the face of economic challenges [1][3][4] Group 1: Debt Dynamics - Modern economies rely heavily on borrowing, with money essentially being a form of "IOU" from central banks, leading to a situation where debt is continuously accumulated rather than repaid [4][5] - The current economic model is unsustainable; if borrowing were to cease, it would lead to a systemic collapse, affecting governments, businesses, and individuals alike [4][5] Group 2: Potential Risks - The first major risk is rising interest rates, which could increase borrowing costs for emerging markets, leading to layoffs and reduced consumer spending, creating a vicious cycle [7][9] - The second risk involves a loss of confidence in debt repayment, where defaults by certain countries or companies could trigger widespread panic and sell-offs in the bond market [10][11] Group 3: Country-Specific Insights - The U.S. benefits from being the global reserve currency, with capital flowing into U.S. debt despite its poor performance compared to other currencies [12] - Japan's debt situation is unique, as it primarily owes its own central bank and citizens, allowing it to maintain low interest rates without immediate repayment pressure [13] Group 4: Investment Implications - The ongoing global debt situation is akin to a "hot potato" game, where individuals are either contributing to debt through loans or facing the consequences of inflation [14] - The recent rise in gold prices reflects a shift towards tangible assets as a hedge against currency devaluation and potential debt defaults [14]