十月行记|“石油小城”房价何以未跌反涨？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Dingbian County is experiencing a significant upward trend, contrasting sharply with the declining prices in major cities like Xi'an, driven by local economic factors and high demand for housing [10][11][27]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Dingbian County's new housing prices have increased by over 25% in three years, with average prices surpassing 5000 yuan per square meter by October 2025, compared to less than 4000 yuan in 2022 [10][11]. - In contrast, Xi'an's second-hand housing prices have dropped by 10.1% year-on-year as of September 2025, reflecting a broader trend of declining prices in first and second-tier cities [10][11]. - Dingbian County is recognized as a major oil-producing area, with proven oil reserves of 1.618 billion tons and natural gas reserves of 300 billion cubic meters, which significantly contributes to its economic stability and housing demand [12][13]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand for housing in Dingbian is driven by two main buyer categories: those purchasing for marriage and those seeking educational opportunities for their children, leading to increased pressure on housing supply [14][15][17]. - The trend of rural population migration to urban areas has intensified, with families moving to Dingbian for better educational prospects, further driving up housing demand [17]. - The scarcity of detached villas in the county has also contributed to rising prices, with some properties seeing price increases from 500,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan over three years [18][19]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the current upward trend, there are concerns about the sustainability of these price increases, with some local residents expressing skepticism about the long-term viability of the market [20][23]. - The limited number of new housing projects in recent years has created a temporary scarcity, but an influx of new developments is expected to alter the supply-demand balance, potentially leading to price corrections [24][25]. - Recent national statistics indicate a general decline in housing prices across major cities, raising questions about the future trajectory of Dingbian's real estate market [26].