12.5万美元：“贬值”交易刺激风险资产反弹 比特币价格再创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has triggered a "devaluation trade," leading investors to shift funds into assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against the risk of dollar depreciation, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $125,689 on October 5 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Bitcoin surged 12% this week and has risen over 30% year-to-date, with the government shutdown being identified as a catalyst for the flow of funds into "safe-haven" assets [3]. - The shutdown has led to a broad rally in risk assets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices also reaching record highs, and gold prices increasing by over 2% this week [4][5]. Group 2: Institutional Demand and Strategies - Institutional demand and technical factors, along with seasonal trends, have contributed to Bitcoin's price increase, with market participants closely monitoring negotiations in Congress regarding federal funding and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3][5]. - Companies like MicroStrategy, under a favorable legislative environment, have adopted a strategy of accumulating cryptocurrencies, which has boosted market demand and extended to smaller competitors like Ethereum [5]. Group 3: Historical Context and Technical Support - Bitcoin's performance during the current government shutdown contrasts sharply with its performance during the previous shutdown in late 2018, indicating a stronger correlation with U.S. government risk this time [5]. - October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last ten Octobers showing price increases, reinforcing bullish sentiment among investors [6].