美联储9月降息评估：政策逻辑、传导路径与全球溢出

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has slightly lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks amid high inflation rates, raising questions about the motivations and implications of potential further rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Motivation and Policy Logic - The change in risk assessment indicates that the Fed prioritizes employment concerns over inflation, with a consensus that moderate rate cuts can mitigate employment deterioration without significantly impacting inflation expectations [2][3]. - The reassessment of inflation structure shows that while supply chain issues and tariffs affect prices, the overall impact on consumer prices remains moderate, allowing for limited rate cuts to buffer demand-side pressures [4][5]. - The operational principles emphasize gradual rate cuts, data dependency, and reversibility to balance restrictive financial conditions with avoiding an economic downturn [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Employment and Inflation - Rate cuts are expected to first benefit interest-sensitive sectors, easing corporate cash flow pressures and potentially stabilizing hiring and working hours over 1-2 quarters [6][7]. - The inflation trajectory is anticipated to stabilize rather than escalate, with limited demand-side stimulus from the rate cuts, allowing for a controlled approach to managing inflation expectations [7][8]. Group 3: Effects on Developing Countries' Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Fed's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is likely to influence global financial conditions, leading to capital flows towards emerging markets and a weaker dollar, which can alleviate debt burdens for developing countries [8][9]. - For China, the Fed's rate cut provides external support for monetary policy, suggesting a cautious approach to avoid exacerbating asset volatility while leveraging external conditions for internal economic stability [9][10].