深度分销失灵，DTC成为酒庄“生存必修课”｜酒庄实战①

Core Insights - The core argument of the article is that the competition among wineries has shifted from "channel competition" to "customer competition" in the context of a stagnant market, making the Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) model essential for the survival and growth of small and medium-sized wineries [3][4][5]. Industry Context - The Chinese liquor industry has entered a phase of "stock game" where the growth of the market has plateaued, with the top five companies (CR5) accounting for over 40% of the market share in 2023, expected to rise to 43%-45% in 2024 [8][10]. - The traditional deep distribution model is failing, necessitating a shift to the DTC model as a survival strategy for wineries [7][8]. Characteristics of the Current Market - The market is characterized by three main features: 1. "Good liquor surplus," where quality is no longer a differentiating factor due to widespread access to brewing technology [10][11]. 2. The rise of consumer sovereignty, with new consumers preferring personal recommendations over traditional advertising [10][11]. 3. High channel costs making the deep distribution model unsustainable, with channel costs consuming 35%-50% of revenue [11][12]. DTC Model Overview - The DTC model is not merely about opening online stores or live streaming; it represents a fundamental shift from relying on channels to directly managing customer relationships [14][15]. - The essence of the DTC model is "relationship marketing," where good quality is the entry ticket, but good relationships serve as the competitive moat [6][14]. Value Proposition of DTC - The DTC model allows wineries to reclaim three core rights: 1. Pricing power, enabling wineries to maintain a gross margin of over 25% by avoiding channel profit sharing [16]. 2. Brand power, allowing direct communication of the winery's story and values to consumers [16]. 3. User power, facilitating direct connections with consumers for better data and feedback [16]. Competitive Advantage - The DTC model helps build a "relationship moat" that counters homogenization in the market, transforming one-time buyers into long-term partners through personalized service and high-frequency interactions [17]. - The customer acquisition cost (CAC) under the DTC model can be reduced to below 50 yuan per person, with a repurchase rate exceeding 70%, compared to traditional channels where CAC ranges from 200 to 500 yuan [17].