Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-05 17:06Core Viewpoint - The current situation in China's electricity supply cannot be simply characterized as "overcapacity," as the core issue lies in the mismatch between advanced 21st-century generation capabilities and a 20th-century dispatch system [1] Group 1: Electricity Generation Capacity - China's total installed power generation capacity reached 334,862 MW, with a year-on-year growth of 14.6% [2] - The installed capacity for hydropower was 43,282 MW (3.2% growth), and for thermal power, it was 144,445 MW (3.8% growth) [2] - In 2024, the total electricity consumption is projected to be 98,521 billion kWh, with a growth of 0.8% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics - The contradiction arises from the difference between installed capacity and actual generation, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar being less reliable [5] - Despite the apparent overcapacity, there is still a shortage of renewable energy to meet demand, leading to the approval of new large coal power projects [3][9] - The rapid growth of electricity consumption, particularly in new economic sectors like AI data centers and electric vehicles, necessitates the retention of thermal power to fill the gap [9] Group 3: Renewable Energy Challenges - The phenomenon of "abandoned electricity" results in the waste of clean power worth over a thousand billion annually, highlighting the inefficiencies in the current system [3] - The actual operating time of wind and solar power is significantly lower than that of thermal power, leading to localized overcapacity during favorable weather conditions [5] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The investment in thermal power increased by 38% in 2023, with the highest number of new projects since 2015, indicating a strategic move to ensure grid stability [9] - The current electricity market lacks real-time pricing mechanisms, which amplifies risks in the spot market and hinders the ability of renewable energy producers to respond effectively [12] Group 5: Structural and Systemic Issues - The electricity system's challenges have shifted from supply assurance to consumption and balance, necessitating systemic reforms in dispatch, trading, and pricing [14] - There are significant barriers to cross-province electricity trading, as local governments prioritize domestic consumption to protect jobs and tax revenues [12][14] - The integration of advanced transmission technologies and large-scale storage solutions is essential to address the spatial and temporal mismatches in energy supply [12]