国庆档过半票房才12亿！流量演员难带动观影，预测票房几乎全亏

Core Insights - The National Day holiday box office has surpassed 1.2 billion, but overall projections remain pessimistic despite efforts to enhance consumer engagement in the film market [1][5] Box Office Performance - The top three films during the National Day period are "The Volunteer Army," "731," and "Assassination of the Novelist 2," with their combined box office exceeding half of the total National Day box office [5] - "731" has accumulated nearly 1.8 billion in box office revenue, with a reported production cost of less than 300 million, indicating a profitable outcome [5] - "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" needs to surpass 2.4 billion to break even, which seems highly unlikely given its previous installments' performance [8] - "Assassination of the Novelist 2" is projected to earn less than 500 million, with production costs likely exceeding 300 million, suggesting it will also incur losses [13] Audience Reception and Trends - The audience has shown signs of fatigue towards patriotic-themed films, as evidenced by the underperformance of "The Volunteer Army" series despite decent ratings [11] - The film "Shocking Loud" has earned less than 100 million in its first two days, while "Wang Wang Life" has only reached 160 million after six days, indicating a struggle to attract viewers [16] - The high refund rate for "Shocking Loud" on its opening day suggests significant audience dissatisfaction [18] Historical Context - The current National Day box office performance is notably lower than previous years, where past champions easily surpassed 4 to 5 billion, highlighting a shift in audience expectations for film quality [20]