人民币为何不升值，美元降息风险加剧，美联储面临最大挑战

Core Viewpoint - The financial market during the 2025 National Day holiday is unusually calm, resembling a "breath-holding contest" as participants await significant movements in response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point interest rate cut has led to a muted response in the currency markets, with the onshore RMB closing around 7.12 and the offshore RMB showing slight fluctuations without major trading activity [3][7]. - Despite expectations of RMB appreciation following the Fed's rate cut, both the USD and RMB are in a state of observation, with market participants hesitant to act and reveal vulnerabilities [5][11]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is characterized by a high level of caution and mutual distrust among participants, leading to a lack of significant trading activity and a stable exchange rate environment [7][11]. - The current market dynamics reflect a departure from the previously close relationship between the RMB and USD, as the RMB is now influenced by a basket of currencies from developing countries, complicating the expected correlation [9][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The consensus among market participants is to maintain stability, with a focus on avoiding drastic fluctuations that could impact export profits and import costs [9][11]. - The future trajectory of the RMB is uncertain, with analysts suggesting that appreciation may only occur when the USD shows significant weakness, indicating a cautious wait-and-see approach [11][12].