12.5万美元，“贬值”交易刺激风险资产反弹，比特币价格再创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has triggered a "devaluation trade," leading to a rebound in global risk assets, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $125,689, surpassing its previous record of $124,514 set on August 14 [1][3]. Group 1: Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin surged by 12% this week and has increased over 30% year-to-date, driven by the expectation that the government shutdown will push funds toward "safe-haven" assets [3]. - The recent performance of Bitcoin is significantly different from the previous government shutdown in late 2018, as it is now more closely correlated with U.S. government risk [5][6]. - Institutional demand, technical factors, and seasonal trends have all contributed to Bitcoin's price increase [3][4]. Group 2: Broader Market Impact - The "devaluation trade" has led to a broad rise in risk assets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices reaching record highs, and gold prices increasing by over 2% this week [3]. - Various assets, including stocks and collectibles, have also hit historical highs, indicating a widespread market response to the devaluation narrative [4]. Group 3: Institutional Influence - Increased institutional demand for Bitcoin has been supported by companies like MicroStrategy adopting cryptocurrency accumulation strategies, which have boosted market demand [6]. - The inflow of funds into Bitcoin-related ETFs has provided additional momentum for price increases, making it easier for traditional investors to participate in Bitcoin investments [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last ten Octobers showing price increases, reinforcing bullish sentiment among investors [6].