10月5日95号、92号汽油价格，国际油价大跌，国内油价上调或搁浅

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming domestic oil price adjustment window is set to open on October 13, with expectations of a significant price increase prior to the National Day holiday being challenged by recent sharp declines in international oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices have experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude futures closing at $64.36 per barrel, marking a weekly decline of over 7%, the lowest in nearly four months. WTI crude prices also fell sharply to $60.35 per barrel [3]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main factors: increased production expectations from OPEC, weakened energy demand forecasts, and a decrease in geopolitical risk premiums [5][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - OPEC is expected to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia indicating a flexible approach to production adjustments based on market conditions. OPEC's oil output has been rising for five consecutive months [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded global oil demand growth for the third consecutive month, projecting an increase of only 700,000 barrels per day by 2025, a reduction of 350,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts [9]. - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased significantly, with current oil risk premiums down 40% compared to the period following the June Israel-Hamas conflict, suggesting further potential for price declines [9]. Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - The rapid decline in international oil prices has led to a narrowing of the domestic crude oil change rate from a significant increase before the holiday to a slight increase of 0.69%, with the price increase dropping from 160 yuan per ton to 50 yuan per ton [10]. - If international oil prices remain at current levels, the domestic oil price adjustment on October 13 may not occur due to insufficient price increases [12]. - The outcome of the OPEC meeting on October 5, particularly regarding potential production increases, will directly impact oil price trends in the following week [14].