重申“产量压减”！业内最新研判：钢价四季度不宜过度悲观｜观策论市

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan for the steel industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing capacity replacement, production reduction, and support for advanced enterprises while phasing out inefficient capacities [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The plan continues the trend of recent years in regulating the steel industry, focusing on increasing capacity replacement and implementing production reduction policies to maintain supply-demand balance [1]. - It promotes the classification and management of steel enterprises and aims to increase the supply of high-end products while ensuring stable prices and supply of raw materials [1][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a downward trend in steel prices in the first half of the year, the overall profitability of steel mills has improved due to a larger decrease in raw material prices compared to steel prices [2]. - The third quarter has seen a strong trend in raw material prices, with iron ore prices rebounding to around $107 per ton due to inventory replenishment by steel mills and unstable overseas shipments [2][3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Outlook - The overall supply of steel remains abundant due to high iron water production, while demand is supported by shipbuilding, automotive, and strong exports, but is weakened by real estate and infrastructure sectors [3]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see a seasonal decline in construction steel demand, with limited potential for significant increases in rolled steel and exports [3]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - Industry experts have differing views on the fourth-quarter steel market, with some indicating that the steel industry will face challenges in profitability management compared to the first half of the year [4]. - The plan emphasizes the need to implement annual crude steel production control tasks and achieve ultra-low emission transformation by the end of 2025, with a potential reduction space of around 10 million tons [4]. Group 5: Future Trends - The plan also highlights the importance of establishing a carbon footprint accounting standard system and promoting digital carbon management centers in anticipation of carbon trading market inclusion [5][6]. - Looking ahead to 2026, there is cautious optimism regarding the steel industry, with expectations of improved demand for construction steel and favorable conditions for steel exports, despite potential adjustments in export regions and product types due to tariffs [6].