张尧浠：美联储年底降息预期增强、金价等待冲击4200关口

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong bullish momentum, closing up for the seventh consecutive week, with expectations of reaching the target range of $3975-$4000 due to sustained buying interest [1][4]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $3758.15 per ounce, hitting a low of $3756.83 before rebounding strongly, reaching a weekly high of $3896.74, and closing at $3884.53, resulting in a weekly increase of $126.38 or 3.36% [1][3]. Market Influences - The decline in the US dollar index, driven by risks of a government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts in October, has contributed to the rebound in gold prices. Despite some downward pressure from profit-taking and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, strong buying interest has supported gold's upward movement [3][6]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming US global supply chain pressure index is expected to be favorable for gold prices. The anticipated impact of the government shutdown on GDP and high probabilities of interest rate cuts in October reinforce a bullish outlook for gold [4][6]. Bullish Sentiment - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 48%, with no signs of slowing down. Factors such as expectations of monetary policy easing, geopolitical risks, and strong inflows into gold ETFs continue to support a bullish market for gold [6][8]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has consistently tested and rebounded from the middle Bollinger Band support, indicating a strong upward trend. The market is expected to continue targeting higher levels, with potential resistance at $3970 or above [8][10]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy remains bullish, with key support levels identified at $3896 and $3875, and resistance levels at $3930 and $3980. The focus is on entering long positions upon any pullbacks to support levels [10].