重申产量压减！业内最新研判：钢价四季度不宜悲观

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan for the steel industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing capacity replacement, production reduction, and support for advanced enterprises while phasing out inefficient capacities [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The plan continues the trend of recent years in regulating the steel industry, focusing on dynamic balance between supply and demand, and promoting high-end product supply [1]. - It encourages the import of raw materials like coking coal and scrap steel while ensuring stable prices [1]. - The overall policy direction emphasizes industry self-discipline, avoiding vicious regional price competition, and enhancing cooperation along the supply chain [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite a downward trend in steel prices in the first half of the year, the overall profitability of steel mills has improved due to a larger decrease in raw material prices compared to steel prices [2]. - The third quarter has seen a strong trend in raw material prices, with iron ore prices rebounding to around $107 per ton due to inventory replenishment by steel mills and unstable overseas shipments [2]. - The steel market is currently characterized by high iron output, leading to an oversupply situation, while demand remains weak due to sluggish real estate and infrastructure sectors [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts have differing views on the fourth quarter; some believe that the steel industry will face challenges with profitability management, while others see potential for price stabilization due to production reduction intentions among steel mills [4]. - The plan also emphasizes the importance of carbon footprint accounting and digital carbon management centers, indicating a shift towards green and low-carbon upgrades in the industry [5][6]. - Looking ahead to 2026, there is cautious optimism regarding the steel industry, with expectations of improved demand in construction steel and favorable conditions for steel exports, despite potential adjustments in export regions and product types due to tariffs [6].