道富资管：金价今年第四季或明年初突破4000美元机率达75%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the price of spot gold is expected to surpass $4,000 per ounce, with a 75% probability of this occurring by Q4 2025 or early 2026, marking 2025 as potentially the strongest year for gold returns since 1979 [1] - Current gold prices have established a new support level at $3,500 per ounce, despite a potential 7-8% pullback in Q4, which is anticipated to be absorbed by buying interest due to a weakening dollar [1] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs is expected to reach new highs in both nominal and tonnage terms in 2025, significantly tightening the gold supply-demand balance and driving prices to new highs [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that gold tends to outperform other assets during periods of low growth and high inflation, with current economic indicators suggesting a weakening labor market and potential inflationary pressures [2] - Central banks are still purchasing gold at a steady pace, despite a slowdown compared to the peaks of 2022-2024, while retail demand for gold in China continues to exceed expectations [2] - Increasing market volatility and heightened risk aversion, particularly if the U.S. government faces prolonged shutdowns, are likely to boost demand for gold [2]