特朗普再抱怨中国不买大豆，美国不明确反台独，生意不做也罢

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of Trump's soybean tariff policy on American farmers and the shift in China's soybean sourcing from the U.S. to South America, highlighting the political implications and the changing dynamics of U.S.-China trade relations [1][22]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Its Consequences - Trump's initial 34% tariff on Chinese soybeans in 2018 aimed to pressure China but resulted in a significant reduction in U.S. soybean exports, with China decreasing its import share from 34.4% to 18.9% [2]. - By 2025, the situation worsened, with China halting all soybean purchases from the U.S. for the first time in 30 years, leading to a surplus of 7 million tons in U.S. warehouses and prices dropping below $8 per bushel [4]. - The U.S. soybean farmers faced losses exceeding $100 per acre, with some expressing that they were growing "political bombs" instead of soybeans [4]. Group 2: Competition from South America - Argentina seized the opportunity created by U.S. tariffs by eliminating its soybean export tax, capturing 12 million tons of orders from China, despite its soybeans being $40 per ton more expensive than U.S. soybeans [5]. - Brazil also increased its soybean exports to China, reaching a record 66 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, while China established a blockchain platform with Brazil and Argentina to ensure the authenticity of soybean sources [7]. Group 3: Farmer Sentiment and Political Ramifications - U.S. farmers expressed dissatisfaction with government subsidies, stating they prefer market access over financial aid, as previous subsidies primarily benefited middlemen [9]. - The agricultural states, crucial for the Republican Party, are showing signs of discontent, pressuring Trump to find solutions as the trade war continues to escalate [11]. Group 4: Broader Political Context - The article suggests that China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans is tied to deeper political issues, particularly regarding Taiwan, which China views as a core interest [13][15]. - China's recent agricultural strategies, including a "soybean revitalization plan" aiming for a production increase to 21 million tons by 2025, indicate a long-term shift away from reliance on U.S. soybeans [17]. Group 5: Long-term Trade Implications - If China completely stops importing U.S. soybeans, the U.S. could face an annual loss of $12 billion in export revenue, which would represent 90% of the projected trade volume with China in 2024 [19]. - The global soybean trade landscape has permanently shifted, with Brazil and Argentina emerging as the new "grain warehouses," diluting the U.S. market share [19].