黄金期权风险溢价飙升，交易员狂买看涨期权以对冲尾部风险

Core Viewpoint - Despite the implied volatility of market benchmark indices remaining stable or declining throughout the year, the risk premium for options across various assets, including stocks and gold, has been rising due to the subdued actual market volatility [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in risk premium is attributed to the difference between expected market volatility and actual volatility, driven by various factors such as interest rate expectations affecting gold, supply-demand outlooks limiting oil price fluctuations, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies impacting stock market performance [5]. - The S&P 500 index has experienced low correlation among individual stocks, which has suppressed overall volatility, even as earnings season approaches [8][10]. Group 2: Options Market Insights - September saw record trading volumes in options, as investors began to hedge against year-end market movements, leading to heightened expectations of volatility [5]. - Fixed strike volatility has significantly increased, with implied volatility remaining high relative to actual volatility metrics [5][7]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have been trapped in a narrow range due to conflicting market expectations of oversupply and geopolitical tensions affecting short-term supply [9]. - The implied volatility of the United States Oil Fund is currently at the 77th percentile of the past year, indicating a high level of risk premium despite limited price movements [9]. Group 4: Gold Market Trends - Gold's implied volatility has been rising, pushing the risk premium for options to a five-year high, primarily due to record-high gold prices and uncertainties surrounding a potential U.S. government shutdown [11][14]. - The fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors has led to a significant increase in option premiums during periods of price surges, although a stabilization in gold prices could lead to a decrease in these premiums [14].