高盛预警：高市早苗胜选或引发日本债市震荡 冲击波将蔓延至美债等市场

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the election of Fumio Kishida as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan is leading to increased volatility in Japanese long-term government bonds, which may impact bond markets in the US and UK [1][3] - The report suggests that every 10 basis points increase in Japanese government bond yields could result in a 2 to 3 basis points rise in yields for US, German, and UK bonds [1][3] - Japan's long-term government bonds have been a bellwether for global bond markets this year, with rising yields reflecting concerns over expanding fiscal deficits [1][3] Group 2 - Fumio Kishida's victory in the LDP presidential election positions her to become Japan's first female Prime Minister, with a platform advocating for fiscal expansion and a right-leaning political stance [3] - Kishida's pro-stimulus approach is expected to lead to increased government bond issuance to fund tax cuts and economic stimulus, resulting in a significant rise in the 40-year Japanese government bond yield by 14 basis points [3][6] - The long-term bond sell-off's sustainability will depend on the evolving political landscape, with upcoming 30-year Japanese government bond auctions likely to reveal investor interest [3][6]