当特朗普用“财政火力”拯救米莱，市场更担心的是美联储的“核武器”

Core Insights - The Trump administration's financial support to Argentina raises concerns about the "weaponization" of the dollar and its implications for global financial stability [1][2][3] Group 1: Nature of Financial Support - The financial support provided to Argentina is characterized as a loan from the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) rather than a traditional central bank swap arrangement [2][3] - This support is politically motivated, aimed at improving the political prospects of President Javier Milei's party following poor performance in local elections [1][2] Group 2: Implications for Global Financial Stability - The use of ESF for political purposes deviates from its historical role, which was limited to addressing unexpected external shocks or systemic crises threatening U.S. financial stability [1][2] - Concerns are growing regarding the reliability of the Federal Reserve in providing dollar liquidity during global crises, especially if political pressures influence its decisions [1][3] Group 3: Alternatives and Future Considerations - In the event that the Federal Reserve refuses to provide liquidity, alternatives are limited, with other central banks unable to match the speed and conditions of dollar liquidity [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could serve as a last resort, but its capacity is constrained by the size of its resources, which may not be sufficient during significant market shocks [4][5] - A proposed increase in IMF quotas could enhance its ability to respond quickly and effectively in crises, but this requires approval from the U.S. Congress [5]