高市早苗重拾“安倍经济学”，中日“政冷经热”难维系？

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks a significant political shift, with implications for Japan-China relations and the potential return of "Abenomics" policies [1][4]. Group 1: Political Background - Sanae Takaichi, a close ally of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, inherits his economic, diplomatic, and defense policies, positioning herself as a representative of the conservative faction within the LDP [3]. - Takaichi has previously expressed strong nationalist sentiments, including multiple visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which is often viewed as a controversial act in Japan-China relations [3]. Group 2: Economic Policies - Takaichi's economic agenda is characterized by "Abenomics," focusing on monetary easing and fiscal expansion, which includes raising the minimum income tax threshold and significantly lowering consumption tax [4][5]. - Concerns arise regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal health, as the country's debt exceeds 250% of its GDP, raising fears of potential financial risks if fiscal expansion continues [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's election victory, the Tokyo financial market reacted positively, with the Nikkei 225 index surging over 4%, while the yen weakened against the dollar, nearing the critical level of 150 [4]. - The bond market experienced volatility, with long-term interest rates rising due to concerns over future fiscal expansion [4]. Group 4: Japan-China Relations - Takaichi's proposed policies, including increasing defense spending to over 2% of GDP and tightening technology export controls, could significantly impact the trade relationship between Japan and China, which currently exceeds $300 billion annually [6][7]. - The potential implementation of these policies may lead to a deterioration of Japan-China economic ties, reversing the recent growth in bilateral trade [7]. Group 5: Geopolitical Implications - Takaichi advocates for deeper military collaboration with the United States and a more aggressive stance towards China, which could escalate tensions in the Asia-Pacific region [8]. - Her strong position on Taiwan, asserting that "Taiwan's issues are Japan's issues," reflects a commitment to a hardline approach, although she has also expressed a desire for open dialogue with China [8]. Group 6: Political Challenges - Despite her clear policy positions, Takaichi faces significant political challenges, including a lack of majority support in both houses of the Diet, which may hinder her ability to implement her agenda [9]. - There is a possibility of internal opposition from moderate factions within the LDP and public sentiment against involvement in regional conflicts, which could lead to a more pragmatic approach in her policies [9][10]. Group 7: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Takaichi may adopt a strategy of "surface toughness with practical adjustments," maintaining a hardline stance in historical and Taiwan-related issues while potentially moderating her economic policies [10]. - The contrasting reactions in financial markets highlight the uncertainty surrounding Takaichi's leadership and the potential for either revitalizing Japan's economy or facing a short-lived premiership [10].