全球央行狂囤黄金，美联储降息+美国滞胀，普通人是抛还是囤？

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching a record high of $3,899 per ounce, reflects a significant shift in global financial dynamics, with central banks increasingly favoring gold over U.S. debt as a reserve asset [1][3][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have increased their gold reserves, surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996, indicating a collective shift away from reliance on the dollar [3][6]. - The People's Bank of China has been a major player, increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August [6][8]. - Central banks globally are projected to add 166 tons of gold reserves by Q2 2025, maintaining high levels of purchasing despite a potential slowdown [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. national debt has ballooned to $37 trillion, with a fiscal income of only $5 trillion, raising concerns about the reliability of U.S. debt as a safe investment [8][9]. - Economic indicators suggest the U.S. is heading towards "stagflation," with rising inflation and increasing unemployment claims, prompting a flight to gold as a safer asset [9][12]. - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have further diminished bond yields, driving more capital into the gold market [9][12]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $4,000 by mid-2026, with extreme scenarios suggesting a rise to $5,000, while cautioning against chasing prices above $3,700 in the short term [14]. - The decline of the U.S. dollar index to 96.22 has historically correlated with rising gold prices, reinforcing the inverse relationship between the two [14]. - The current gold price surge is fundamentally tied to a global crisis of confidence in fiat currencies, with central banks accumulating gold as a hedge against economic instability [14].