国际油价高开超1%！OPEC+继续小幅增产 市场份额战烽烟再起

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ announced a modest increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, maintaining the same level as October due to ongoing concerns about potential supply surplus in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Production Decisions - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, which is lower than market expectations, leading to a jump in international oil prices by over 1% [1]. - The organization believes the global economic outlook is stable, supported by low crude oil inventory levels, indicating a healthy market fundamental [2]. - Internal disagreements were noted between Russia and Saudi Arabia regarding production levels, with Russia favoring a conservative approach to avoid downward pressure on prices, while Saudi Arabia sought a more aggressive increase [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - Since April 2022, OPEC+ has shifted away from its previous production cuts, which peaked at 5.85 million barrels per day, to regain market share and respond to U.S. pressure to lower oil prices [4]. - The group has already canceled significant portions of its previous production cuts, with a total increase of 137,000 barrels per day planned for November [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns about a potential supply surplus in the oil market have led to significant price declines, with Brent crude falling 8.1% and WTI down 7.4% in the past week [7]. - Analysts predict that the anticipated supply surplus will become evident in the coming months, exacerbated by seasonal demand declines and refinery maintenance [7]. - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts and potential sanctions on Russian oil, are also influencing market dynamics [8]. Group 4: Future Meetings - The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for November 2, where further production strategies may be discussed [9].