国庆价格暴涨！行情启动？

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector has experienced a decade of turbulence since 2016, leading to reduced market attention on this industry [1] Group 1: Historical Performance - The aviation sector has only seen two significant upswings in the past: from 2006 to 2007 and from 2014 to 2015, both coinciding with notable bull markets in A-shares [2][3] - The sector has been underperforming in both Hong Kong and A-shares this year, indicating ongoing cost pressures and intense competition affecting airline profitability [49] Group 2: Recent Trends and Demand - In the past month, the aviation sector has benefited from an overall rise in the tourism sector, with the aviation transportation index increasing by 6% since early September [5][6] - The upcoming National Day holiday, combined with the Mid-Autumn Festival, has led to a significant increase in long-distance travel, with over 340 million expected travelers, marking a historical peak [7][8] - Domestic flight ticket bookings for the holiday have surpassed 11.89 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 3% compared to last year [8] Group 3: Pricing and Capacity Issues - The price of tickets has surged due to increased demand, with the average domestic economy class ticket price rising by 9.1% to 819 yuan [10] - Airlines have not significantly increased capacity to match the rising demand, leading to many popular routes selling out early [12] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has emphasized maintaining market order and price stability, which has contributed to the absence of drastic price drops during peak travel seasons [13][14] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The aviation industry has faced severe losses during the pandemic, with cumulative losses nearing 400 billion yuan, wiping out previous profits [23] - Major state-owned airlines have continued to report losses, with China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China posting losses of 15.33 billion, 14.41 billion, and 18.06 billion yuan respectively in the first half of 2025 [26] - The domestic aviation market is still experiencing oversupply, particularly in short-haul routes where high-speed rail competes effectively [28] Group 5: Future Outlook - The long-term supply-demand relationship in the aviation sector may improve due to a tightening supply, with expected fleet growth of only 2-3% over the next five years, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels [39] - The industry is anticipated to see a supply-demand gap of +4.1% by 2025, which could lead to improved profitability for airlines [40] - Cost control will be crucial for airlines to navigate the ongoing competitive landscape, with Spring Airlines emerging as a profitable player through effective cost management [42]