美国财长贝森特曾赞关税，40天急转称中美谈判有突破，还主动提大豆采购话题

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, who previously expressed satisfaction with tariffs, has now indicated that significant breakthroughs are expected in U.S.-China trade negotiations, suggesting a shift in stance due to internal pressures [1][3][11] - The recent lack of soybean purchases by China, which has reached zero for the first time since records began in 1999, highlights the urgency of addressing agricultural trade issues [5][9] - The decline in U.S. soybean prices by 23% this year, coupled with competitive pressures from Argentina, has intensified the economic challenges faced by American farmers [7][9][19] Economic Impact - The U.S. soybean association estimates that farmers are facing losses of $100 to $150 per acre, indicating severe financial distress for agricultural families [7][9] - Argentina's suspension of export taxes has made its soybeans more competitive, leading to a shift in Chinese purchases away from U.S. products [9][21] - The political ramifications of these economic issues are significant, as agricultural states are crucial to the Republican base, and farmer dissatisfaction could impact upcoming elections [11][19] Political Dynamics - The upcoming midterm elections are creating pressure for the U.S. administration to deliver satisfactory outcomes for farmers, as failure to do so could jeopardize electoral support [11][19] - The shift in U.S. trade policy may be influenced by lobbying from business leaders concerned about declining profits and rising consumer costs due to tariffs [15][19] - The potential for a limited agreement in trade negotiations may involve selective tariff reductions in exchange for increased Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products [21][23] Strategic Considerations - The U.S. may seek to balance domestic economic needs with ongoing strategic goals to contain China's technological advancements, indicating a complex negotiation landscape [23][24] - China's resilience and market significance are underscored by the U.S. Treasury Secretary's recent comments, suggesting that negotiations will require a focus on mutual benefits rather than unilateral concessions [24][25] - The evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations reflect a recognition that extreme pressure tactics have not yielded the desired outcomes, necessitating a return to dialogue [24][25]