不是迷信！一旦房地产救不起来，明年楼市或有“5个”大难题？

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend into 2025, with a significant increase in second-hand housing listings, surpassing 7.3 million units by September 2025, and a year-on-year price drop of 7.38% in major cities [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - The number of second-hand housing listings has surged, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, each exceeding 140,000 units [1][3] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter in September, marking a continuous decline for 41 months [1] Group 2: Policy Responses - Various stimulus policies have been introduced to revive the real estate market, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions in most cities and reductions in mortgage rates to historical lows [3] - Tax reductions on transaction fees for homebuyers have also been implemented, but the effectiveness of these measures remains limited [3] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - A potential decline in local government revenue due to reduced land sales could impact infrastructure investment, debt repayment, and social welfare spending [5] - The increasing number of second-hand homes may lead to greater difficulty in selling properties, particularly if the market does not recover [7] - The trend of homeowners defaulting on mortgages is rising, with over 300,000 new defaults in the first half of 2025, driven by falling property values and reduced household incomes [9] - A significant portion of household wealth is tied up in real estate, with properties accounting for 77% of total household assets, leading to reduced consumer spending as asset values decline [11] - The real estate sector may face a major shakeout in 2026, with weaker developers at risk of bankruptcy or restructuring, potentially leading to unfinished projects and further eroding market confidence [12]