四川路桥(600039)：基建川军 订单复苏 分红提升 红利依旧

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 43.536 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.780 billion yuan, down 13.00% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 43.536 billion yuan, 2.780 billion yuan, and 2.720 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4.91%, -13.00%, and -13.72% [1] - The company has a projected revenue of 109.295 billion yuan, 117.840 billion yuan, and 123.732 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +2%, +8%, and +5% respectively [3] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to 2027 is 7.958 billion yuan, 8.410 billion yuan, and 8.914 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +10%, +6%, and +6% respectively [3] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Sichuan's strategic positioning has been upgraded, with infrastructure investment expected to exceed 280 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.48% [1] - The total planned scale of highways in Sichuan is approximately 20,000 kilometers by 2035, with over 10,000 kilometers already operational by the end of 2024, indicating significant growth potential [1] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The major shareholder, Shudao Group, has increased the company's dividend payout ratio to 60%, with a projected dividend yield of 6.8% for 2025 [2] - The cash dividend ratio has been steadily increasing, with a commitment to maintain a payout of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 4: Order Growth - The company signed new contracts worth 72.240 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.20%, with quarterly growth rates of 18.87% and 25.44% for Q1 and Q2 respectively [2] - The infrastructure sector showed strong performance, with new contracts amounting to 61.740 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.88% [3]