TSM Soars 18% in a Month: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) shares have increased by 18.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's gain of 6.3% [1] - TSMC's stock performance has surpassed major semiconductor companies like NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom [1] Stock Performance - TSMC shares are trading near their 52-week high of $296.72, closing at $292.19 last Friday [3] - The stock has shown significant growth compared to peers, with NVIDIA and AMD rising by 11.5% and 8.8%, respectively, while Broadcom declined by 2.1% [1] AI Growth Catalyst - TSMC is positioned as a leader in the global chip foundry market, crucial for companies involved in the AI boom, including NVIDIA, Marvell, and Broadcom [4] - AI-related chip sales tripled in 2024, contributing a mid-teen percentage to TSMC's total revenues, with expectations for AI revenues to double again in 2025 and grow 40% annually over the next five years [5] Capital Expenditure - TSMC plans to invest between $38 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, significantly higher than the $29.8 billion investment in 2024, with 70% focused on advanced manufacturing processes [6] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, TSMC's revenues surged 44% year over year to $30.07 billion, and EPS increased by 61% to $2.47, driven by demand for advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes [7][10] - TSMC raised its revenue growth guidance for full-year 2025 to 30%, up from mid-20% previously projected [11] Valuation - TSMC's stock trades at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 26.99, lower than the sector average of 29.4, making it attractive for long-term investors [12][15] Near-Term Challenges - TSMC faces near-term challenges due to softness in key markets like PCs and smartphones, which are expected to see only low single-digit growth in 2025 [16] - The company's global expansion strategy, including new fabs in the U.S., Japan, and Germany, may lead to higher costs and a potential 2-3 percentage point annual decline in gross margins over the next three to five years [17] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China relations, pose strategic risks, with significant revenue exposure to China [18] Conclusion - TSMC remains a cornerstone of the semiconductor industry with strong capabilities in advanced chip manufacturing and exposure to AI demand, but short-term headwinds suggest a cautious approach [19][20]