若不出意外，2025年下半年开始，一半家庭都可能面临“5大难题”

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is showing a "steady improvement" trend as it approaches 2025, with GDP reaching 66,053.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The per capita disposable income for residents is 21,840 yuan, also showing a nominal year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] Consumer and Housing Market Challenges - There is a significant decline in consumer demand, a persistent downturn in the real estate market, and an unfavorable employment situation [1] - A warning has been issued that by the second half of 2025, many households may face "five major challenges" [3] Financial and Investment Risks - Bank deposit rates have fallen into the "1 era," leading to a dilemma for individuals between low returns on savings and rising investment risks in stocks, funds, and other high-yield products [5] - The risk of loss is evident even in lower-rated bank wealth management products, causing uncertainty among investors [5] Real Estate Market Decline - Since 2022, housing prices have entered a long-term adjustment phase, with average national housing prices dropping over 30% [7] - Many families have significant wealth tied up in real estate, and continued price declines could lead to asset depreciation [8] Employment and Income Pressures - The sluggish economy has resulted in declining corporate profits, leading to layoffs and salary reductions, which in turn affects household income [10] - Fixed-rate mortgage contracts mean that even with falling interest rates, many families still face substantial repayment pressures [10] Increased Housing Supply and Selling Difficulties - By September 2025, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale exceeded 7.3 million, complicating the selling process for families with multiple properties [12] - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, the listing volume has surpassed 140,000 units, indicating a saturated market [12] Entrepreneurship Challenges - The current economic climate has made entrepreneurship increasingly difficult, with low success rates due to oversaturation in traditional industries, competition from e-commerce, and rising operational costs [15] - The anticipated emergence of these "five major challenges" is attributed to social and economic transitions, as well as the fallout from a real estate bubble [15]