黄金价格还能继续飙升？三大核心支撑解密未来走势

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices has been unprecedented, with prices rising from $2100 to $2400 per ounce in just over a month, marking a 44% increase from November 2022 to May 2024, despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [3][5] Group 1: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a significant increase in gold ETF holdings during risk events [5][7] - Market expectations of a shift in monetary policy, with predictions of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, historically correlating with a rise in gold prices as the dollar index declines [5][7] - Central banks globally, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, with a record purchase of 1136 tons in the previous year, indicating a strategic move to counteract the weakening dollar system [7] Group 2: Risks and Considerations - Despite the bullish trend, there are risks associated with potential economic recovery in the U.S. that could delay interest rate cuts, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices, reminiscent of past market reactions to hawkish Federal Reserve statements [8] - Investors are advised to adopt a phased investment strategy rather than attempting to time the market perfectly, with a recommendation to limit gold holdings to no more than 15% of the total investment portfolio [9] - For current investors, setting profit-taking levels around $2300 per ounce is suggested, as gold serves as both a speculative asset in the short term and a stable investment in the long term [9]