中美谈判加入新筹码，特朗普被逼下场，美财长预告，重大突破要来

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is experiencing significant pressure regarding soybean exports, leading to a shift in its approach to trade negotiations with China, where agricultural issues are becoming a focal point [1][10][15]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has historically engaged in a prolonged competition with China, but recent developments indicate a need for cooperation, particularly in agricultural exports [1]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates a "significant breakthrough" in the upcoming trade negotiations, highlighting a shift in the U.S. stance [10]. - The U.S. soybean market is facing severe challenges, with net sales reported at -189,000 tons for the 2024/2025 season, and China accounting for 60% of U.S. soybean exports [3][5]. Group 2: Political Implications - The Trump administration is under pressure from agricultural stakeholders, which are crucial to the Republican voter base, necessitating a high-level meeting with China to address soybean issues [6][15]. - The U.S. has implemented substantial tariffs on Chinese goods, with additional tariffs reaching 145% as of April 10, 2025, prompting retaliatory measures from China [8]. Group 3: Negotiation Strategies - For a successful negotiation, the U.S. must consider substantial tariff adjustments and establish a long-term procurement mechanism to alleviate Chinese concerns [12][14]. - Structural reforms in areas such as technology transfer and market access are essential for building trust and ensuring sustainable trade relations [14][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming negotiations are critical, with the potential for a "significant breakthrough" depending on the U.S.'s willingness to make meaningful concessions [19]. - The geopolitical context, including tensions in the Middle East, will also influence the dynamics of U.S.-China trade discussions [17].