Cleveland-Cliffs Rally Tops S&P 500, Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - U.S. trade tariffs, while seen as a hurdle by many investors, are benefiting domestic firms in the basic materials sector, particularly in steel, due to increased local production and a trend towards onshoring [1] Group 1: Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Investment Potential - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has recently reached a new 52-week high, indicating significant upside potential that is not fully priced in [2] - The inclusion of electrical steel and stainless steel derivative products in Section 232 has made imports of these metals more expensive, allowing Cleveland-Cliffs to capture market share [2] - The current steel prices are near a five-year low, and with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, a new bull market cycle for commodities may be on the horizon [3] Group 2: Demand and Financial Outlook - As business and consumer spending recover due to lower interest rates, steel demand is expected to rise, benefiting Cleveland-Cliffs and leading to improved margins and earnings per share [4] - Analysts forecast a significant improvement in Cleveland-Cliffs' EPS, projecting a swing from a net loss of 50 cents to a 17-cent EPS by the second quarter of 2026 [5] Group 3: Market Performance and Institutional Support - Cleveland-Cliffs' stock has surged by 19.1% in the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 by over 15%, indicating strong investor support [6] - The company reported a record 4.3 million tons of steel shipments, showcasing the positive impact of tariffs on domestic demand [7] - State Street increased its holdings in Cleveland-Cliffs by 20.2% in August 2025, reflecting strong institutional confidence in the company's prospects [8] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Short Interest - The short interest in Cleveland-Cliffs has declined by 3.3% over the past month, suggesting potential bearish capitulation amid tariff uncertainties [9] - The company's role in the onshoring of various industries and the increased market share from Section 232 inclusion make it an attractive option for investors seeking a favorable risk-to-reward ratio [9]