有色板块分化明显！分析人士：铜价有望继续领涨

Core Viewpoint - The "Nonferrous Metal Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, outlines a clear direction for the future development of the nonferrous metal industry, with expectations for growth amid macroeconomic changes and supply-side disturbances [1][2]. Macroeconomic Context - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point interest rate cut and indications of two more cuts this year are expected to positively impact nonferrous metals, as historical trends show that such cuts typically lead to lower U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, benefiting metals with financial attributes [1][2]. - Domestic macroeconomic signals are also positive, with expectations for policy support increasing, particularly following the Central Committee's meeting on September 29, which discussed the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Industry Growth Projections - The plan sets a target for the nonferrous metal industry's value-added growth at approximately 5% annually and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten key nonferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, and lithium, with recycled metal production expected to exceed 20 million tons [2]. - Data from January to August 2025 shows a 7.7% year-on-year increase in the value-added of the nonferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, surpassing the national average industrial growth rate [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent accident at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has intensified supply concerns, with the company reducing its 2026 copper production guidance by 35%, leading to expectations of a global copper supply deficit of 26.8 thousand tons in 2025 and 30.8 thousand tons in 2026 [3][4]. - Despite the strong performance of copper prices, other nonferrous metals are experiencing relatively flat price movements due to weak global economic data and subdued downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors [4]. Long-term Implications of the Plan - Key aspects of the plan include clarifying mining rights, promoting recycling and green transformation in the nonferrous metals sector, and recognizing the potential for new demand from AI and robotics [3]. - The industry is expected to undergo a transition towards green, low-carbon, and high-end development by 2026, necessitating close monitoring of policy implementation and downstream demand recovery [1][3].