美联储内部博弈升级！施密德不愿进一步降息，通胀成最大顾虑

Core Viewpoint - The Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid supports the recent rate cut but is hesitant about further easing, highlighting the difficulty of achieving consensus within the Federal Reserve on interest rate decisions [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Schmid voted in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut in September, considering it a suitable risk management measure due to a cooling labor market [2]. - Several Fed policymakers, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, express concerns that further rate cuts could reignite inflation [2]. - The newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran opposed the recent rate cut and has publicly called for significant rate reductions in upcoming meetings [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Schmid noted that companies are delaying hiring due to uncertainties related to Trump's tariff policies and the impact of artificial intelligence on future labor demand [3]. - Despite concerns, indicators such as a 4.3% unemployment rate suggest that the overall labor market remains healthy [3]. - Monthly job creation has significantly decreased, prompting some Fed officials to support further rate cuts to prevent further labor market weakness [3]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Schmid emphasized that inflation remains high, with service sector inflation stabilizing around 3.5%, well above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - He pointed out that nearly 80% of tracked categories in official inflation data showed price increases as of August, up from 70% earlier in the year [3]. - Schmid believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation is relatively small, indicating that current policy adjustments are appropriate rather than necessitating significant rate cuts [3]. Group 4: Balancing Economic Goals - Schmid highlighted the trade-offs faced by Fed policymakers: cutting rates to boost the labor market could risk rising inflation, while maintaining high rates to control inflation could increase unemployment [4]. - He stressed the importance of maintaining credibility on inflation issues while balancing competing economic goals [4]. - Schmid noted that the U.S. economy is performing well, with software spending related to artificial intelligence boosting corporate investment [4].