美银策略师警告：黄金牛市或面临 “中期回调”

Core Viewpoint - Recent gold prices have surged, nearing $4000 per ounce, as investors and central banks turn to gold as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainty [1][2] Group 1: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce from a previous estimate of $4300 [1] - UBS anticipates gold prices will rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months [1] - Deutsche Bank suggests that the current rise in gold prices reflects investor panic [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Bank of America’s Paul Ciana warns of increased risks of a price correction, indicating that the current upward trend is showing signs of fatigue [1] - Ciana notes that the recent surge in gold prices is driven more by momentum buying rather than fundamental support, and any shift in market sentiment could lead to a significant reversal [1][2] - Historical patterns indicate that gold prices have previously peaked when they were approximately 25% above the 200-day simple moving average, with current prices about 20% above this average [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Since hitting a low in 2015, gold prices have increased by approximately 85% by 2020, followed by a 15% correction in 2022, and then a subsequent rise of 130% [2] - Historical analysis shows that gold bull markets have not fully retraced their gains since the 1930s [2] - The gold market's total capitalization has surged to over $550 billion, nearly double the peaks seen in 2011 and 2020 [6] Group 4: Diverging Opinions - Within Bank of America, there are differing views on gold prices, with one team suggesting that gold has not yet reached its ceiling [5] - Michael Widmer's team believes that gold prices approaching $4000 per ounce is not surprising, given the historical context of inflation and monetary policy [5][6] - Both Widmer and Ciana agree that the recent pace of gold price increases is too rapid [6]