未来3年，“咬牙买房”还是“尽快卖房”？曹德旺给的忠告靠谱！

Core Viewpoint - The warning from Cao Dewang regarding the real estate market emphasizes the return of housing to its fundamental purpose of providing shelter, suggesting that properties may no longer maintain their value over the long term and could become a game for the wealthy [1][3] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The market is experiencing a severe imbalance, with 42% of households owning two or more properties and over 120 million vacant homes, sufficient for 360 million people. Despite this, millions of new homes are still entering the market annually, leading to a projected 760 million square meters of unsold residential space by 2025 [1][3] - The declining birth rate and a 65% urbanization rate are contributing to a significant slowdown in housing demand, resulting in insufficient motivation for new purchases [1] Market Trends - The period of market correction is far from over, with new residential sales area and sales revenue projected to decline by 3.5% and 5.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, respectively. Prices in many cities have been falling for over 30 months, with some cities experiencing price drops exceeding 30% from peak levels [3][4] - Cao Dewang predicts that the real estate adjustment will take 5 to 6 years to complete, indicating that the current market bubble has not yet fully deflated [3] Asset Characteristics - Real estate is shifting from being viewed as an "appreciation tool" to a "liability burden," with multi-property owners facing high maintenance costs, difficulty in liquidating assets, and significant debt pressure [4][5] - In cities like Shanghai, monthly mortgage payments for a two-bedroom apartment exceed 15,000 yuan, while rental prices have dropped by 20%, leading to negative cash flow for many property owners [4][5] Recommendations for Multi-Property Owners - Cao Dewang advises multi-property owners to "sell as soon as possible," as three major risks are expected to intensify over the next three years, including liquidity exhaustion, rising holding costs, and concentrated debt default risks [4][7] - The market is showing signs of "price without market," with significant declines in property values across various regions, making it increasingly difficult to sell excess properties [4][7] Recommendations for First-Time Buyers - For first-time buyers, the advice is not to avoid purchasing altogether but to be cautious and avoid speculative buying. The current policy environment offers opportunities for reasonable demand to be met [8][9] - The market is expected to exhibit structural opportunities, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities maintaining inventory turnover within 12 months, while third and fourth-tier cities face significant downward price pressure [8][9] Conclusion - The real estate market is entering a deep adjustment phase, characterized by a divergence between declining prices in lower-tier cities and resilience in core urban areas. The advice from Cao Dewang highlights the importance of rational decision-making based on individual circumstances, emphasizing the need to prioritize personal financial situations over speculative trends [12][13]